You
hear it on the news that the Tigard, Oregon real estate market is
starting to
bounce back, but ask yourself is it really? The media is
telling us how
home
sales are up in the last month, so there is a bounce, but like all
things that
go up, it has to come down sometime, so is this a large bounce or a
little hop?
My perspective is that is
really neither. It is actually a false bounce
brought
on by bad economic policy that in the end may actually make things
worse,
rather than make things better. It is a temporary band-aid put on
something
that really needs stitches. Basically, the band-aid can only hold the
problem
for a short time before the wounds starts to bleed again.
Here is the reason that I
don’t think the Tigard, Oregon, real estate
market
really is making a bounce back, but rather a false bubble created by
the
government. I took all the sales in my office in the last
month plus
the sales
of about 10 other agents in other offices and found out they had two
kinds of
buyers. The ones that got the $8,000 credit and the ones that just sold
their
home to a person who was getting the $8,000 tax credit.
You see, once the $8,000
tax credit is gone, we have no buyers. With no
buyers
the one selling can’t buy either and the home prices will begin to fall
again.
Basically, what the government has done is created a false sense of
security
with the $8,000 tax credit and makes it look there are really more
buyers than
there actually should be.
So ask yourself this, why
do we continue to put up with the government
not
reading the bills they are passing and further delaying
the bottom of
the
market that has to happen for the market to recover? Putting a band-aid
on it
won’t help and it could actually make things worse!
Do you see this as a false bubble or are you with the local media and patting the government on the shoulder and thanking them for saving us once again, by spending our money.
Todd Clark - Broker / Sales Coach
Palazzo Realty Group
Phone: (503)524-9494
Fax: (503)622-8739
©2009 Todd Clark - Tigard Oregon Real Estate and More: The housing market is starting to bounce back or is it?
Todd Clark and the Friendly Home Team
Knipe Realty
Todd@IFoundYourNewHome.com
Phone: (503)524-9494
Fax: (503)746-9573
I am a licensed Realtor who specializes in Washington County, Oregon and also work in both Clackamas and Multnomah Counties including the cities of Aloha, Beaverton, Canby, Clackamas, Gladstone, Gresham, Happy Valley, Hillsboro, Milwaukie, Oregon City, Sherwood and Tigard. All information contained in these posts are copyrighted and cannot be used without prior written approval authorization from the author me Todd Clark. If you are looking for an outstanding agent please give me a call I would love to help you with all your real estate needs.
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Todd - I have to agree with you 100% on the prediction of future housing prices. Couple that with the lifting of the moratorium and there should be obvious signs of uncertainty. Instead of agents running around saying that the market has turned, they should help people focus on buying a home for what it is and stop treating it as an investment only.
Todd
I agree with the band aid on the brokeren arm thing, but corrections will take place in some avenues. More with budget buyers. At least that is what I see here.
Todd - I hope your take on the market is incorrect. We are seeing an uptick in traffic - mostly first-time home buyers. However, we haven't seen a dramatic increase in sales. We are expecting a busy August and September. I think we will see gross inflated sales figures for Octiober and November based on the tax credit.
Todd - The tax credit needs to be extended from it's deadline and inclusive to all buyers. It is helping move properties from the market that otherwise would not move or would be slow to move. This eventually helps people move up to the next level. The real estate market (as a whole) will only become healthy when the job market returns to 6% unemployment. JMHO
Todd, for me personally, I have sold two homes to people who will qualify for the tax credit. The rest of our transactions for the year are just regular buyers who have sold a home and need a new one or who have been renting or overseas. Did they sell to first time homebuyers? In one case, definitely no and I don't know about the others. I do think there will be a decrease in sales after the tax credit is gone.
Sharon
Hi Todd, "what the government has done is created a false sense of security". I agree with you. The same about the cash for clunkers.
I am sure it has affected some decisions to buy but I still think things are getting better.
Todd.....basically you are saying exactly what I have felt for a good while. The stats don't lie. I hope NAR and others study them realistically also.
Well, December 1st is fast approaching and I guess we will see what happens after that day. Do they extend the $8000, do they increase it or does home sales just drop off dramatically?